What connects the countries of Belgium, Peru, the UK, Spain, Italy, Chile, Sweden, the US, Mexico, and France? These countries, the top ten in COVID-19 mortality (as of August 24, 2020, according to Johns Hopkins), all injected more than 49% of their elderly populations with the flu vaccine. This stands in stark contrast to the countries on the low end, with fatality rates/popuation up to four orders of magnitude smaller: Rwanda, Thailand, Mozambique, Sri Lanka, Papau New Guinea, Uganda, Tanzania, Taiwan, and Vietnam – with the exception of a 49% vaccination rate in Taiwan, the flu vaccination rates in these countries is extremely low. While one might object that these countries may lack in testing ability, careful serological study of multiple countries in Africa has shown that while in fact many cases were missed, this is because the residents were in fact not very ill – while the number of individuals with COVID antibodies in Kenya, for example, was similar to Spain, the hospitals were never overwhelmed and excess deaths were not reported. However we look at the data – either between or within continents – higher rates of flu vaccination clearly appears to transform large numbers of COVID cases from mild to severe disease. As flu vaccines are being pushed aggressively and even mandated in fall 2020, it is critical for citizens and medical professionals to review the issue. Please read on for data, references, and sources.
Low COVID-19 fatality rates seen in countries with low influenza vaccine coverage
Cunningham, (2020) published a list of flu shot coverage rates in European countries vs. their COVID-19 fatality rates. His data is graphed below, updated through July 16 and supplemented with every other country for which we could find influenza vaccine data. This includes the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Japan, Iceland, Israel, and South Korea. Because COVID-19 testing and reporting may be inconsistent between countries, we also provide the peak total excess death rate since January of 2020, in the form of a statistical Z score for countries for which this was available. Full data and sources are given at the bottom of this article. All flu vaccine coverage data comes from 2019, if available, or 2018.
There are several important messages from these graphs:
1) Countries with high flu vaccine coverage, as of July 2020, suffered up to at least 20 times more COVID-19 fatalities/million as countries with low coverage.
2) There appears to be a TIPPING POINT that occurs at 45% -50% flu vaccine coverage. At vaccination coverage levels either below or above this point there is little correlation with COVID fatality, but the average fatality rate in countries with coverage over the tipping point is significantly higher. This indicates that reaching a certain density of individuals made especially vulnerable to COVID by flu vaccination results in connected clusters of vulnerability that span the system (that is, the percolation threshold is reached) which suddenly creates sharply worse outcomes.
High Flu Coverage Rates Might Make Individual COVID Infections More Lethal
Total COVID deaths/million = cases/million x deaths/case. When we plot these two factors individually we find that both are affected by influenza vaccination rates, but that deaths/case may be affected more strongly. This indicates that when the virus is caught by a chain of individuals who have all received the flu vaccine it may somehow become more dangerous, perhaps because people are passing on higher viral loads or because the virus changes in some way. The one country that has a high death/case rate despite relatively low flu vaccination is Hungary, the only country to use an aluminum-adjuvanted flu vaccine. No clear impact of use of other adjuvanted or high potency vaccines can be seen with existing data (see sources below). As supporting evidence that the primary role of flu vaccination is to make COVID more lethal rather than simply more contagious is this article about Africa, which references all countries with very low flu vaccination rates, and reveals that COVID does indeed spread readily through such populations but causes exceedingly low fatalities.
The Flu Shot Also Correlated With Excess Deaths in 2017
In 2017 there was unusually high excess mortality during the flu season in Europe caused by an A(H3N2) flu that was poorly matched to the vaccine. As explained below, the flu vaccine can increase vulnerability to any infection not specifically covered by the vaccine. Therefore it might be expected to increase mortality in any year in which the primary dangerous circulating pathogen is not a specific vaccine flu strain. In 2017 we saw the exact same pattern as in 2020 – more excess deaths in countries with higher flu shot coverage, with a potential tipping point again at the 50% coverage rate and also another potential tipping point at 30% coverage (we also see a suggestion of some critical behavior at 30% in the COVID data). Alternatively it would also be possible to fit a linear relationship to this data. This data set is more straightforward since no country was taking extreme social distancing measures in 2017.
Correlation Between Flu Shot Coverage and COVID-19 Mortality Seen in the United States
Note: Please make sure to scroll through all three figures below to understand the situation in the United States! No correlation can be seen between state by state flu shot coverage in 2020 of the over 65 population and COVID deaths/million in the United States. If we go back to 2019 (see data link below), however, we find that every state had a vaccination coverage of >50% in the elderly population. Our data above shows that 50% vaccination rates in 2018 or later is a tipping point – the average COVID fatality rate for >50% coverage is much higher than for <50% coverage, however increasing values over 50% does not cause additional significant increase. We do see a statistically significant correlation when we look at the vaccination rates of the entire population older than 18 in a state (for the 2018/2019 season), and an even more powerful correlation is seen when we look at vaccination rates of children (again, 2018/2019 season). For all adults the tipping point is again at around 45% – 50%, whereas for children there is a small tipping point around 63% and a much larger one around 69%. Every single state with a high COVID death rate, including New York, had a high flu vaccination rate of children. Since child deaths nonetheless remain low, this must indicate that the children passed a more lethal infection on to their elders, indicating again that the primary role of flu vaccination is to cause individuals to pass more severe cases of COVID-19 to each other. The COVID-19 fatality data is from mid-July, 2020.
And an alternative way to plot the state data from the United States, if you’re tired at looking at so many scatter plots!
You have probably heard many times that “correlation does not imply causation”. Causation is implied, however, when there is solid independent science that both supports and explains a casual relationship. In the case of the flu vaccine there are multiple studies, including one which was double-blinded and placebo controlled, which have demonstrated that the fllu vaccine increase susceptibility to other infections. Read below for this science, starting with a background about the flu vaccine and the scientists who have argued against it for years.
The Flu Shot: Never Supported by Science
In 1972, Dr. John Anthony Morris reported his research findings on the influenza vaccine to his superiors at the FDA. A distinguished doctor and government researcher, Dr. Morris had been comissioned 13 years earlier to scientifically justify the FDA’s plans to widely expand the flu vaccination program. To his expectant audience, however, his results were thoroughly disappointing. Dr. Morris reported that the flu shot provided no measurable net benefit, in part because the injected product failed to stimulate antibody production in the lungs, thus allowing for viral replication in this sensitive area. It was later realized that the lack of benefit also derives from the flu shot’s ability to increase vulnerability to viruses not covered in the shot, including unmatched strains of flu and different respiratory viruses dangerous in their own right. Dr. Morris’ finding of no net benefit of the influenza vaccine has been repeatedly verified with contemporary data, including a study by Simonsen et al. (2005) that found that the large increase in flu vaccination of the elderly between 1980 and 2001 failed to decrease flu season mortality, and a study in Britain which found that the vast increase in flu shot uptake by those who had just turned 65 (vs. those who were just a bit younger) provided no decline in hospitalizations or deaths.
For much more data and information please visit the source of this post.